Roland Garros Showdown: Sinner's Speed vs Djokovic's Smarts
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"I thrive on Grand Slams. This is where I lock in and really give my best," Novak Djokovic stated following his masterclass quarterfinal win against Alexander Zverev on Wednesday.
For the first time ever, Djokovic wasn't the clear frontrunner for a major championship. Many professionals were reluctant to support the Serb for a French Open victory due to rising concerns about his lack of trophies and fitness, as well as the increasing popularity of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Only a few days before he arrived in Paris, his 16-month wait for an ATP championship ended in Geneva, giving him just a slight improvement in his situation.
However, it was always foolish to dismiss Djokovic in any Grand Slam.
Djokovic's passion for Roland Garros is seldom discussed, and understandably so, given that he competed in a time when Rafael Nadal was unrivaled on Parisian clay. However, the next in line are Djokovic's accomplishments at the French Open.
In Paris, he has reached the semifinals of the Grand Slam tournament 13 times during his record-breaking 51 Grand Slam semifinal appearances, including three times when he won the championship and seven times when he made it to the finals. He is only the second man to break the triple-figure barrier, having won 101 games at Roland Garros. He is also the only player to have ever defeated Nadal twice at Court Philippe Chatrier. And remember that since winning the championship in 2023, Djokovic has continued to be undefeated at the venue, and he subsequently won a historic Olympic gold medal.
At 38 years old, Djokovic is still pursuing that amazing 25th Major. However, his attempt to reach a 38th Grand Slam final is now up against a significant challenge— The World Jannik Sinner is ranked first.
In Paris, the Italian has been a formidable opponent. Having just won the Rome final, Sinner is on the fourth-longest Grand Slam winning streak of the century, having won the championship at the last two Majors, and has not yet lost a set at Roland Garros.
Djokovic vs Sinner: Head-to-head
The Paris semifinal will be their ninth meeting on the tour. Both have won four matches each so far. Sinner has claimed victory in all of their last three encounters, including the Australian Open semifinal earlier this year. However, Djokovic holds a narrow 2-1 edge in Grand Slam meetings and also won their only clay-court clash — albeit four years ago.
Where the match could be won or lost
Since his Monte Carlo defeat in 2021, Sinner has made significant progress. With his game better suited to hard courts, clay has always been his least favorite surface. However, his performance in Paris this year demonstrates a notable change in strategy.
In order to enable him to jump into action, one significant modification has been in his return posture against first serves—he is now in a side-facing position with his left foot forward. On second serves, this position is still the norm.
With a 55% success rate on break points, which is greater than Djokovic's 46%, Sinner has earned 47% of his receiving points in Paris this fortnight. However, the Serbian maestro, who gave Zverev a serving clinic, will put this to the ultimate test.
Djokovic made a clever adjustment following a slow start with his first serve, using wide angles to pull the German off the court and ending rallies at the net. In the first set, he only landed 52% of his first serves, but in the following three sets, he made over 75% of his serves. He also threw in his trademark drop shots to keep Zverev on his toes.
Instead of engaging in baseline slugfests where Sinner's thunderous groundstrokes might tip the scales, Djokovic should use the same approach against the current Australian Open champion.
What other weapon will Djokovic be wary of? Sinner's forehand. According to data from Djokovic's former analyst Craig O'Shannessy, Sinner had 65 forehand winners on that side and just 69 mistakes on his way to the quarterfinals.
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